Post Dominion War Projection

[Deepcrush]

And the RSE couldn't do anything without the permission of the UFP since they are the only ones who seem able to convince the KE not to steamroll the RSE.

The Klingon's problem is that they're now in no position to steamroll anyone, and I wouldn't be too surprised to see the Romulans try and make that state of affairs permanent.

Might have helped you to have read the whole quote.

The KE isn't in a position to really push anything, at least not for another ten years.

[Captain Seafort]

1) If you want me to read that, chose a different colour - it's invisible

2) Make your mind up. The first half of your comment contradicted the second half. I replied to the second half as it seemed to be the thrust of it.

[Captain Seafort]

Pre Super Nova you might be right, post Super Nova I doubt the Romulans are in any position to pull off manipulations on that scale.

Assuming the Super Nova even exists after Janeway's temporal chicanery and assuming it's deployed in time to make a difference and assuming the Romulans technology doesn't improve at an equal or better rate...

[Sonic Glitch]

I think he means the supernova (one word) that destroyed Romulus, not the Super Nova that Harry Kim commanded in "Endgame."

[Captain Seafort]

In which case the issue is completely irrelevant. We're talking about the decade or so after the war, not thirty years later.

[Deepcrush]

1) If you want me to read that, chose a different colour - it's invisible

2) Make your mind up. The first half of your comment contradicted the second half. I replied to the second half as it seemed to be the thrust of it.

Hardly my problem that you can't read blue. Also, my statement is time based so read the whole sentence and it would be a lot easier. Sloan made the statement that it would be ten years until the KE recovered so my statement included that in it. Its not a contradiction, its information.

[Captain Seafort]

1) If you want me to read that, chose a different colour - it's invisible

2) Make your mind up. The first half of your comment contradicted the second half. I replied to the second half as it seemed to be the thrust of it.

Hardly my problem that you can't read blue. Also, my statement is time based so read the whole sentence and it would be a lot easier. Sloan made the statement that it would be ten years until the KE recovered so my statement included that in it. Its not a contradiction, its information.

Then we get back to my statement that the Romulans are likely to take advantage of the Klingons weakness to steamroll them for a change.

[Deepcrush]

Only if three concerns are met. 1, The KDF is to weakened to repel the RSN. This is unlikely as Sloan related directly to the Klingon economy and nothing else. 2, the RSN is strong enough to mount an offensive with the force required to breach the Klingon defenses. 3, The UFP doesn't jump in and engage the RSN to keep them from crushing the UFP's only real ally in the quadrant.

[Captain Seafort]

1, The KDF is to weakened to repel the RSN. This is unlikely as Sloan related directly to the Klingon economy and nothing else.

BASHIR
You're asking me to spy on an
ally.

SLOAN
To evaluate an ally -- and a
temporary ally at that. I say
that because when the war's over,
the following will happen in
short order: The Dominion will
be forced back to the Gamma
Quadrant. The Cardassian Empire
will be occupied. The Klingon
Empire will spend the next ten
years recovering from the war and
won't pose a major threat to
anyone. That leaves two powers
to vie for control of the
quadrant -- the Federation and
the Romulans.

BASHIR
This war isn't even over and
you're already planning for the
next one.

SLOAN
Well put. I hope your report is
equally succinct.

Sloan is clearly talking about the Klingons' military position.

2, the RSN is strong enough to mount an offensive with the force required to breach the Klingon defenses.

Sloan clearly expects the KE to be a spent force for at least decade post-war, and the RSE to be a threat to the UFP. The logical conclusion of these two points is that the Klingons will be overmatched by the Romulans. Incidentally, the fact that he never mentions the UFP-Klingon alliance in his analysis of why the struggle for control of the quadrant will be between the UFP and the RSE indicates that he doesn't consider it a relevant factor. Understandably, given how quickly the Klingons abandoned it, and indeed went to war with the Federation only a few years earlier. It's an alliance of convenience, nothing more, and while Martok's clearly pro-UFP Klingon Chancellors can change with the flash of a blade. Gowron only favoured the alliance when it supported his own political ends, Kempec's position was unclear, but probably similar to Gowron's in using the UFP to counterbalance Duras' faction, and Duras was actively opposed (with enough internal support to start a civil war).

3, The UFP doesn't jump in and engage the RSN to keep them from crushing the UFP's only real ally in the quadrant.

That's one possibility. One that the RSE might take advantage of to smash Starfleet before it's fully recovered from the war - don't forget that Starfleet had been fighting for a lot longer than the Romulans, and had suffered heavy losses in the early war period. It's possible, depending on the KE's internal political situation, that the UFP might stand aside, or even join the Romulans in dismembering the Empire.

[Deepcrush]

I stand corrected on my first point. However I find it unlikely the Romulans would be willing to risk a drawn out conflict with both the UFP and the KE combined. Another problem is that the UFP needs the KE around to help balance out the power scales. As long as there are three powers then neither of the others can risk open war. UFP isn't in that fashion, the KE is to spent and the RSE can't risk having to face the combined power of the KE. The KDF is still strong, even if the empire as a whole is weaken. They would still likely be enough to slow a RSE advance enough for the UFP to counter. That is my opinion at least.

[Captain Seafort]

However I find it unlikely the Romulans would be willing to risk a drawn out conflict with both the UFP and the KE combined.

Agreed, but if they saw even the slightest opening to crush the KE in a lightning campaign, or to isolate it politically from the UFP and destroy it in a one-on-one conflict, I think they'd go for it.

Another problem is that the UFP needs the KE around to help balance out the power scales. As long as there are three powers then neither of the others can risk open war. UFP isn't in that fashion, the KE is to spent and the RSE can't risk having to face the combined power of the KE.

That's the RSE's fear. The UFP's fear is that if Martok is replaced by an anti-UFP or pro-Romulan Chancellor, then that balance immediately shifts. While Kempec was Chancellor, that fear was somewhat in the background, due to the generally friendly relations and the lack of Romulan activity. Since his death the Romulans are far more active, including intervening in the Klingon Civil War, and Gowron's campaigns have demonstrated how much trouble a hostile KE can cause. The UFP has also received several hard kicks in the teeth in quick succession (two Borg incursions and the Dominion War) and are much more realist in their outlook as a result. Therefore the chances of them responding to a Romulan campaign against the Klingons by trying to grab as much territory and resources as possible, rather than by honouring the alliance, are greatly increased.

The KDF is still strong, even if the empire as a whole is weaken. They would still likely be enough to slow a RSE advance enough for the UFP to counter. That is my opinion at least.

The KDF got hammered almost as badly as Starfleet in the opening campaigns of the war, and Sloan was writing it off in the short term as anything but a self defence force even before the Breen got involved. Holding the line alone against odds of twenty-to-one, while Starfleet and the Romulans withdrew to re-equip, will only have exacerbated their difficulties, in both absolute terms and relative to their wartime allies.

[Coalition]

Then we get back to my statement that the Romulans are likely to take advantage of the Klingons weakness to steamroll them for a change.

I don't see the Romulans steamrollering them at all. I see the Romulans doing their best to keep low-level Klingon civil wars going on between the houses, so Klingon strength is kept bleeding away in dozens of small wars for the next century. Houses that choose to ally with the Romulans are supported by D'Deridex ships, but with Klingon officers on board, to give the impression that Klingons are still in charge. The problems are slowly dialed down, so a House doesn't have lots of problems, then they all magically go away when the House joins the Romulans. Though having the Tal'Shiar deliver a few 'gifts' to the local House leader (gifts = the dead bodies of the house's enemies). If those enemies were Klingon, the T'S would deliver the bodies of any non-Klingons, and give the location to the House leader so it is Klingons killing Klingons, rather than Romulans killing Klingons.

Essentially, find another House Duras, but instead of being an obvious threat, they keep the Klingons fighting each other, rather than rebuilding. The Klingon Houses that ally with the Romulans choose to do so, and the Romulans arrive openly. The Romulans would also insist that when the Klingons choose for them to leave, they will. The fun part is when they accept that any Klingon telling them to leave will count, so the House leaders have to reign in their subordinates when a child tells the Romulans he wants them gone.

The KDF got hammered almost as badly as Starfleet in the opening campaigns of the war, and Sloan was writing it off in the short term as anything but a self defence force even before the Breen got involved. Holding the line alone against odds of twenty-to-one, while Starfleet and the Romulans withdrew to re-equip, will only have exacerbated their difficulties, in both absolute terms and relative to their wartime allies.

Personally, I'd think that was a matter of engaging the Cardassians/Dominion ships right near Cardassia Prime (a major industrial site), rather than the C/D having 20* as many ships. I.e. the Klingons might have 1000 ships, but a 4 week transit time between repair site and battle site (DS9 is a front line, not a shipyard). If the C/D ships only have a 1 week time, and five times as many ships, they can achieve locally 20:1 odds, but have only 5:1 odds overall. Add to that most of the ships were the Dominion Bugs, so the Klingons have lots of little pests to swat, and the C/D forces can build/repair them much faster than a capital ship.

In Starcraft terms, for the Protoss, it's like engaging Protoss forces near a cluster of shield batteries. You might outnumber them overall, but their troops can do lots of hit and run, falling back to their shield batteries to rapidly recharge and reengage.

[Deepcrush]

Agreed, but if they saw even the slightest opening to crush the KE in a lightning campaign, or to isolate it politically from the UFP and destroy it in a one-on-one conflict, I think they'd go for it.

Of course they'd go for it, we've seen they'll strike at even the slightest advantage. Problem is they won't get it. Like Kempec, Martok is to powerful and popular to just be replaced by normal challenge. At least not anytime soon. Ten years for the KE to recover means at best the RSE has five years before a rapid victory against a force as dangerous and driven as the Klingons is out of the question.

That's the RSE's fear. The UFP's fear is that if Martok is replaced by an anti-UFP or pro-Romulan Chancellor, then that balance immediately shifts. While Kempec was Chancellor, that fear was somewhat in the background, due to the generally friendly relations and the lack of Romulan activity. Since his death the Romulans are far more active, including intervening in the Klingon Civil War, and Gowron's campaigns have demonstrated how much trouble a hostile KE can cause. The UFP has also received several hard kicks in the teeth in quick succession (two Borg incursions and the Dominion War) and are much more realist in their outlook as a result. Therefore the chances of them responding to a Romulan campaign against the Klingons by trying to grab as much territory and resources as possible, rather than by honouring the alliance, are greatly increased.

There will always be fears of someone switching sides but saying the UFP is going to sit back and let the RSE just dig into the KE is silly at best. The UFP has only one ally in the AQ of any standing, that's the KE. Once they are gone the UFP is standing on its own. You speak of a more realistic outlook, that would include knowing that if your only ally bits the dust then you are next.

The KDF got hammered almost as badly as Starfleet in the opening campaigns of the war, and Sloan was writing it off in the short term as anything but a self defence force even before the Breen got involved. Holding the line alone against odds of twenty-to-one, while Starfleet and the Romulans withdrew to re-equip, will only have exacerbated their difficulties, in both absolute terms and relative to their wartime allies.

Sisko and Ross pointed out the twenty to one odds... against the whole Dominion+Breen+Cardassian force. However that is only one week's worth of ships as Martok pointed out. We also have to understand that the Klingons did in fact hold the line against those odds for several months and even took the offensive in a number of cases. Martok lead strikes deep into Dominion lines and offensives against their systems. The KDF's ability to withstand even the worst of situations isn't to be underestimated. To do so is to ignore an important lesson of war, numbers don't determine outcomes on their own.

[Captain Seafort]

Of course they'd go for it, we've seen they'll strike at even the slightest advantage. Problem is they won't get it. Like Kempec, Martok is to powerful and popular to just be replaced by normal challenge.

And look what happened to Kempec.

At least not anytime soon. Ten years for the KE to recover means at best the RSE has five years before a rapid victory against a force as dangerous and driven as the Klingons is out of the question.

The "ten years" estimate was given before the Breen campaign, which will have extended it somewhat.

There will always be fears of someone switching sides but saying the UFP is going to sit back and let the RSE just dig into the KE is silly at best. The UFP has only one ally in the AQ of any standing, that's the KE. Once they are gone the UFP is standing on its own. You speak of a more realistic outlook, that would include knowing that if your only ally bits the dust then you are next.

The problem is that given the state of the Empire, going to their aid risks spreading Starfleet too thin, as they'd effectively be trying to defend the territory of two major powers with the military forces of one and a bit. They'd therefore be better off simply grabbing what bits of the KE they could, to improve their own industrial capacity.

Sisko and Ross pointed out the twenty to one odds... against the whole Dominion+Breen+Cardassian force. However that is only one week's worth of ships as Martok pointed out.

The adjustment required was minor - the Ki'tang's Chief Engineer did it himself, immediately prior to the battle, so it's logical that the entire Klingon fleet could do it just as quickly - this isn't something that required time or external support.

We also have to understand that the Klingons did in fact hold the line against those odds for several months and even took the offensive in a number of cases. Martok lead strikes deep into Dominion lines and offensives against their systems.

And suffered horrific losses in the process - as Worf pointed out when he challenged Gowron for the Chancellorship. They held the line, and saved the Alpha Quadrant, but at the cost of the KDF as a major force.

The KDF's ability to withstand even the worst of situations isn't to be underestimated. To do so is to ignore an important lesson of war, numbers don't determine outcomes on their own.

Not on their own, but they're one of the more important factors.

[Deepcrush]

And look what happened to Kempec.

The longest standing leader of the Empire in history, leading it to the height of its power, solidifying its alliance with the Federation and end two generations of conflict. Not much of a problem there.

The "ten years" estimate was given before the Breen campaign, which will have extended it somewhat.

Possible, however its just as possible that the Federation will aid the recovery of the KE. Or that Martok being in power vs that of Gowron will lead to a more rapid rebuild. There's a lot of possible outcomes, however the ten year is the only canon statement so we should stick to it as much as possible.

The problem is that given the state of the Empire, going to their aid risks spreading Starfleet too thin, as they'd effectively be trying to defend the territory of two major powers with the military forces of one and a bit. They'd therefore be better off simply grabbing what bits of the KE they could, to improve their own industrial capacity.

The only way to improve industrial capacity would be ground invasion. Neither the UFP or RSN have the forces required to begin invading KE worlds. Also the UFP wouldn't have to defend the KE, defending the KE is meaningless because the RSN doesn't have the ability to conquer. Defeat its fleets maybe, but it can't take the planets. Which means that the UFP would only have to focus on defending itself and launching attacks into RSE space.

The adjustment required was minor - the Ki'tang's Chief Engineer did it himself, immediately prior to the battle, so it's logical that the entire Klingon fleet could do it just as quickly - this isn't something that required time or external support.

Its not the adjustment that would be the problem, but the time required to deploy across the whole of the UFP/RSE border. In most wars the greatest trouble isn't the battle but deploying for it, this issue wouldn't be any different.

And suffered horrific losses in the process - as Worf pointed out when he challenged Gowron for the Chancellorship. They held the line, and saved the Alpha Quadrant, but at the cost of the KDF as a major force.

Worf pointed out that Gowron was wasting ships to try and discredit Martok, not that Gowron had destroyed the KDF as an effective fighting force. That the RSN was the fleet in need of help at the end of the war and not the KDF speaks volumes.

Not on their own, but they're one of the more important factors.

Important not so much but no doubt helpful. Where numbers would likely play would be on the RSNs attempt to advance from system to system. The KE has a class of ship that can be built in fantastic numbers not just in shipyards in orbit but planet side as well. Given the weakness of RSN shields, having to advance against cheap ships that may spend much of the day ramming you as well as orbital defenses which the Klingons seemed fond of really puts a harsh turn on any invasion attempt.