How big SHOULD the Federation Fleet be?

[Mikey]

Indeed, it's impossible to tell if those GCS's were all part of the same "wing" or merely converged on the same most-viable target.

[Captain Seafort]

1) We can assume total number of fleets from what we do know

No, we cannot. The only thing we know is that the Federation has at least seven fleets, because that was how many we heard of. It may have many more.

2) No more than 2/3rds of total number of ships will be out of fleet at maximum

Evidence?

3) rest is guessing, educated as it can be

It's not even guessing - it's pulling random numbers out of your arse.

[Sonic Glitch]

2) No more than 2/3rds of total number of ships will be out of fleet at maximum

Evidence?

Isn't that a point that's been brought up many times on this site by people more knowledgeable about the military (I think even you've mentioned it at one point or another): Fleets usually break-down something like: 1/3 in work up, 1/3 in transit, 1/3 operating. I seem to recall that from other threads

[Captain Seafort]

Fleets usually break-down something like: 1/3 in work up, 1/3 in transit, 1/3 operating. I seem to recall that from other threads

Indeed, but a) that's just a rule-of-thumb, not a hard-and-fast law, b) it certainly isn't an "absolute maximum" of the number of ships not on station - depending on what's been going on there could be considerably more than 2/3 out of action, and c) it doesn't take into account those ships not assigned to one of the numbered fleets.

More importantly in this case, Picard's been throwing numbers out with nothing to back them up whatsoever. The best that can be said about the Fleet strengths is that we know the combined Dominion fleet was about 30k strong as of "When it Rains", and the combined FKR fleet must therefore be roughly the same size and almost certainly smaller, given that your typical Federation and Romulan ships are far larger than the bugs that make up the bulk of the Dominion fleet. Starfleet is therefore probably less than 10k strong, the Romulan fleet quite a bit smaller than that as their only observed design is larger and more powerful than a GCS, and yet they've always avoided direct conflict, and the Klingons probably as strong or stronger than Starfleet, offset by the large number of small ships in the fleet.

[Picard]

No, we cannot. The only thing we know is that the Federation has at least seven fleets, because that was how many we heard of. It may have many more.

Actually, it has ten at least.
http://memory-alpha.org/wiki/Starfleet_Fleets

Evidence?

As far as I know, modern fleets regularly have only 1/3rd of total ship count in combat, rest is refueling, bieng repaired, or on way to/from combat area.

Starfleet is therefore probably less than 10k strong

I did new numbering based on number of Starbases and it came out as 8 000 ships. But that is just counting ships that are in active service at that time, since I just counted number of ships around Starbase 375 and then number of starbases. If we take 20 ships for one starbase, that is 14 000 ships, but many of these ships were pulled from repairs/refitting. BobW points out to 5 000-ship fleet. But then again, "elements" of two fleets had 600 ships. If we take it to mean that 1 fleet has 300 ships in active service, and there are 10 fleets (no reasons for gaps, since fleets are freshly-formed), that is 3 000 ships in active service and 9 000 total. So pick number you want.

[Mikey]

Actually, it has ten at least.
http://memory-alpha.org/wiki/Starfleet_Fleets

That lists seven, plus a handful of task groups.

As far as I know, modern fleets regularly have only 1/3rd of total ship count in combat, rest is refueling, bieng repaired, or on way to/from combat area.

A logical deduction, perhaps, but that's neither canon nor evidence that the same rules of thumb apply to Starfleet.

I did new numbering based on number of Starbases and it came out as 8 000 ships. But that is just counting ships that are in active service at that time, since I just counted number of ships around Starbase 375 and then number of starbases. If we take 20 ships for one starbase, that is 14 000 ships, but many of these ships were pulled from repairs/refitting. BobW points out to 5 000-ship fleet. But then again, "elements" of two fleets had 600 ships. If we take it to mean that 1 fleet has 300 ships in active service, and there are 10 fleets (no reasons for gaps, since fleets are freshly-formed), that is 3 000 ships in active service and 9 000 total. So pick number you want.

Basing an enumeration on the number of Starbases is both incorrectly based and horribly flawed - you have know way of knowing how many active starbases there are. You're also assuming with no basis that each active starbase has the same number of ships attached; that there are ten fleets; that each fleet had similar numbers of ships; etc.

[Captain Seafort]

A logical deduction, perhaps, but that's neither canon nor evidence that the same rules of thumb apply to Starfleet.

Not only that, but it is only a rule-of-thumb - it's certainly not precise enough to justify such an absolute statement as "No more than 2/3rds of total number of ships will be out of fleet at maximum".

Basing an enumeration on the number of Starbases is both incorrectly based and horribly flawed - you have know way of knowing how many active starbases there are. You're also assuming with no basis that each active starbase has the same number of ships attached; that there are ten fleets; that each fleet had similar numbers of ships; etc.

Indeed. For a modern comparison, compare the number of ships present on an average day at Norfolk to those present at Gitmo.

[Mikey]

Indeed. For a modern comparison, compare the number of ships present on an average day at Norfolk to those present at Gitmo.

Too true, and I'd say the inconclusiveness is rooted even more deeply. To wit:

#1 - We have no idea how many starbases there are. Not all of them are numbered ("Lya Station Alpha") and some are numbered using alternate schemes (DS9, K-7.) Further, the existence of a "Starbase 73" does not mean that either: a) there ever was a Starbase 72, or b) if there was, that it is currently active.

#2 - We don't know Starfleet's policy on "attaching" ships, much less fleets, to starbases. In fact, the only definitive example we have is that of the Defiant and DS9, and that example is mitigated by the fact that Sisko only got the Defiant through his finagling and the fact that the ship was considered a quasi-failed experiment until Merlin O'Brien got his hands on it. Starbases and ship numbers could very well be completely unrelated.

#3 - What is a starbase? We've seen all types of stations and other things labeled "starbase," each of which would lend itself to different numbers of ships:
a) planetside facilities - these would have a few ships, at best, "attached" based on keeping ships in system if not in orbit.
b) Spacedock-types and the scaled-up TNG version - these would presumably have a a decent number of ships around, though more probably for maintenance purposes rather than permanently attached.
c) K-7/"Deep Space" stations - these would probably support a handful of shuttles.
d) scaled-up redresses of the Orbital Office (i.e., Regula One, Starbase 173, etc.) - these would probably support a handful of front-line ships, if that.

[RK_Striker_JK_5]

Said it before, I'll say it again. Starfleet is big enough so that the Enterprise is the only ship in the sector.

[Mikey]

[Picard]

That lists seven, plus a handful of task groups.

Highest number we hear about is tenth fleet, and since fleet seem to have been formed specifically for Dominion War, there is no reson to assume gaps.

A logical deduction, perhaps, but that's neither canon nor evidence that the same rules of thumb apply to Starfleet.

Since Starfleet is primarly composed of 40+ year old ships...

http://www.uss-sovereign.co.uk/sov_imag ... norama.jpg

And I doubt they still build excelsiors in later half of 24th century.

[Captain Seafort]

Highest number we hear about is tenth fleet, and since fleet seem to have been formed specifically for Dominion War, there is no reson to assume gaps.

This does not change the fact that the most we can say is that Starfleet has at least seven fleets, of wildly varying strength. We cannot, therefore, use those fleets to even guess at the overall strength of Starfleet.

Since Starfleet is primarly composed of 40+ year old ships...

Utopia Planitia

Pretty picture. The point of which is ehat exactly?

And I doubt they still build excelsiors in later half of 24th century.

They probably do, given that the Ex-class Melbourne has a higher registry number than many Nebula class ships.

[Deepcrush]

And I doubt they still build excelsiors in later half of 24th century.

You're own picture counters this since the ship under construction in the very front is a Excelsior Mk-II

[Mikey]

Highest number we hear about is tenth fleet, and since fleet seem to have been formed specifically for Dominion War, there is no reson to assume gaps.

You're the one making assumptions, as you're the one positing fleets for which there is no evidence. You can assume that tritanium is a solid for of the stuff inside a Twinkee, too, but there's as much evidence for that.

Since Starfleet is primarly composed of 40+ year old ships...

http://www.uss-sovereign.co.uk/sov_imag ... norama.jpg

And I doubt they still build excelsiors in later half of 24th century.

OK, you've provided a picture that is evidence of the fact that Starfleet builds ships. And... ?

[Mark]

Actually, that proves nothing. That ship could have been in for upgrades, repairs, refitting, anything.