Politics...revealed

Post by **Mikey** » Wed Jan 09, 2008 4:22 am

I don't trust exit polls. One station showed Clinton up by 4 pts. while another simultaneously showed Obama up 10.

I had kind of figured that NH would be Clinton territory, unfortunately.

Captain Peabody · Post by **Captain Peabody** » Wed Jan 09, 2008 4:59 am

Well, it's official:

On the Republican side, McCain easily trounced Romney; whether you like him or not, you have to admit that he's pulled one of the biggest comebacks in recent memory. Remember back last summer when the media was busy running "post-mortems" on his campaign? Personally, McCain is my favorite candidate, so I'm quite happy with the results. Also, this is another major blow to Romney, who is my absolute most-hated candidate... So, on the Republican side, at least, it's all good.

The Democratic side, however, is not so positive; Hillary won, pulling off a rather unexpected victory over Obama, and officially putting an end to all the reports that her campaign was dead after Iowa. Personally, I think Hillary gaining the nomination would actually be quite a big boost to the Republicans in the general election; so many people hate her so much that it would give the Republicans a pretty major oppurtunity for victory. Obama, on the other hand, would be much, much harder to beat.

We'll see...

Monroe · Post by **Monroe** » Wed Jan 09, 2008 5:05 am

Yeah Republicans want her to win cause they can beat her. I know if she gets the nomination I'm probably voting for Stephen Colbert

Interesting thing though they both get the same amount of delicates to the convinction- 9. So its basically a tie. But since Obama had 6k less votes (at 85% reporting) then Clinton gets the news of being the winner which saves her bid.

Post by **Mikey** » Wed Jan 09, 2008 5:11 am

I don't know if it was unexpected. NH usually responds to the most successful fund-raisers, and Hillary has a great weapon. Say what you will about Bill Clinton, he's one of the best campaigners and electioneers to come through US politics in my lifetime.

Jordanis · Post by **Jordanis** » Wed Jan 09, 2008 7:10 am

The fundraising gap isn't that big. Last I looked it was Clinton ~90 mil vs Obama ~80 mil. Given the head start of being the 'inevitable candidate' Clinton had (and her being the obvious choice of the Democratic establishment, as evidenced by the huge number of superdelegates that have thrown in with her), that's pretty good.

Captain Peabody · Post by **Captain Peabody** » Wed Jan 09, 2008 3:31 pm

I don't know if it was unexpected. NH usually responds to the most successful fund-raisers, and Hillary has a great weapon.

Huh? Romney outraised and outspent McCain many, many times over, and that didn't seem to have much effect on the outcome...

Actually, I think a lot of Hillary's victory was due to there being not as many younger voters (who usually vote for Obama) , and a whole lot of older ones (who usually supported Hillary)... but whatever.

Post by **Mikey** » Wed Jan 09, 2008 4:17 pm

I said USUALLY. In that particular case, I think Romney left a sour aftertaste in much of New England.

Monroe · Post by **Monroe** » Thu Jan 10, 2008 6:12 am

And Richards dropped out.

Enkidu · Post by **Enkidu** » Thu Jan 10, 2008 10:53 am

Basic US politics question: Who votes in the primaries, is it the respective party members? I always assumed that was the case, but a lot of the reports on the news make it sound like the general public elect which candidate goes forward, with talk of good turnouts despite the weather, and single mothers turning out to vote for Hillary, etc.

Post by **Mikey** » Thu Jan 10, 2008 12:07 pm

There are actually two different methodologies used, and the actual electorate involved may vary from state to state - in mine, for instance, only registered members of the party in question may vote in the primary.

The first method is the caucus - e.g., Iowa. In this arguably more democratic model, each candidate wins delegates to the national convention in proportion to his or her share of the vote. Sometimes, additional "reserve" delegates will be awarded to the outright winner.

The other is the primary election. The winner wins that state's delegates, and everyone else makes up stories about why they didn't win.

Finally, all those delegates meet at the national convention, cast their votes as mandated, and the candidate with the majority becomes that party's presidential nominee.

All that said, however, electioneering is still important. Obama, for example, would probably profit from a block of voters which normally has shown a poor record of actually coming out to vote - both ethnic minorities and lower economic classes/blue-collar, "inner-city" voters. In the presidential elections, getting these people out to vote is uisually a focus, and may be a deciding factor, for the Dems. In a primary, it may be just as important to sway the vote toward a more liberal candidate, or one who is seen as more populist - or one who is part African-American...

Jordanis · Post by **Jordanis** » Thu Jan 10, 2008 12:22 pm

Mikey wrote:The other is the primary election. The winner wins that state's delegates, and everyone else makes up stories about why they didn't win.

Primaries involve the proportional distribution of delegates as well. At least the NH primary did. The main difference is in exactly how votes are cast.

Post by **Mikey** » Thu Jan 10, 2008 12:25 pm

Hmmm... yes it appears that you're right and that I'm a dumba**. In NJ, things work a little differently, and elections often go to the highest bidder.

Jordanis · Post by **Jordanis** » Thu Jan 10, 2008 12:34 pm

Here in Oregon, we hold our primary in May, to ensure that no candidate bothers to set foot in the state.

Post by **Mikey** » Thu Jan 10, 2008 2:19 pm

Well, you get penalized by the national committees if you change the scheduling. Wisconsin moved up their GOP primary this year, to make sure that candidates actually remembered that there was a state there, but the RNC actually cut their total delegation in response.

Jordanis · Post by **Jordanis** » Thu Jan 10, 2008 2:36 pm

Actually, that's because the moved it up to before February 5th. Both parties have rules saying that no one save some specific exceptions can have primaries or caucuses before Feb 5th, which is why ~60% of states hold theirs then.

Florida moved their primary up, and they now get NO delegates to the DNC and half to the RNC. I believe Michigan did also, and is in the same boat.

EDIT: Okay, to list it all out, at the RNC Florida, Michigan, South Carolina, Wyoming, and New Hampshire are all getting half their delegates stripped for violating Feb 5th.

At the DNC, Florida and Michigan have all their votes stripped for violating the Feb 5th rule. At the request of the DNC, all candidates save Clinton and one of the backrunners have agreed to withdraw from the Michigan primary.

Wisconsin votes Feb 19th for both parties, and is getting no votes stripped.