Why uber ships fail

[Granitehewer]

...just big enough, may be too risky a proposition, and with the apparently vast resources of the dominion, they could afford to overwhelming defeat the coalition and with the female founders' distain of defeat/perceived weakness, that seems more likely the plan

[Graham Kennedy]

How's it risky? Not just big enough to win... just big enough to be certain of winning.

[Granitehewer]

well i mean that 'just big enough' still has an element of risk especially from extraneous variables, and depends how you define ''certain'', its a matter of perspective as an army regarded as big enough to be certain to win in RL on many occasions hasn't , and so victory isn't automatically guaranteed

[Sionnach Glic]

There's an old saying along the lines of "every plan fails once contact is made with the enemy" (I'm sure Seafort will be along to give me the proper quote any minute now ).
If you know everything about your opponents, such as their numbers, their commander, their fleet composition, the strength of their ships, their tactics, their supply state, their morale and the time it would take reinforcements to arrive (all of which needs to be up-to-date info), then sure, you could send just enough to be sure of winning.

But just how often are you going to have that much info on the enemy? Never.

Can you imagine a general trying to invade a country with this strategy? Picture the planning for the Iraq invasion.

General: "Yes, we've deployed just enough troops to destroy the Iraqi army. Provided everything we know about their numbers, equipment, strenght, fuel supply, leadership, tactics and morale is correct and up to date."

My bet is that such a general would very quickly find himself fired.

[Graham Kennedy]

Big enough to be certain to win carries no risk of losing, by definition. If you lose, your fleet wasn't big enough to be certain to win. That's what the phrase means.

[Captain Picard's Hair]

well i mean that 'just big enough' still has an element of risk especially from extraneous variables, and depends how you define ''certain'', its a matter of perspective as an army regarded as big enough to be certain to win in RL on many occasions hasn't , and so victory isn't automatically guaranteed

You're describing something similar to a "factor of safety" in engineering. Structures are built stronger than they need to be intentionally just because of uncertainty about how strong they actually are (besides the fact that there's no guarantee that the owners and managers will heed the load limits...). Suppose we can agree on a reasonable factor of security for the Dominion fleet which ensures victory without using up too many extra ships?

[Sionnach Glic]

Big enough to be certain to win carries no risk of losing, by definition. If you lose, your fleet wasn't big enough to be certain to win. That's what the phrase means.

Oh, I see what you mean now. As in "big enough that, even assuming all factors are in their favour and they have a bunch of extra ships we don't know about, we'd still win"? That's fine.

[Granitehewer]

many from Saushtatar, king of Hanilgalbat to al-Malik al-Muazzam Ghayath al-Din Turanshah to premier zhou enlai to probably even someone this year make that same mistake, whether it be arrogance or a misjudgement, history punishes those who are sure of themselves

[Granitehewer]

ok so ''certain'' in a pseudo-objective way, rather than ''certain'' in terms of someones' affective confidence...

[Deepcrush]

Well, it comes to down to how many ships the Dominion had on hand at the moment. Plus not wanting to give away to much of what they knew vs what they had (force wise).

[Granitehewer]

agreed. i think that the dominion like the romulans do rely on perceived might and enigmatism

[Deepcrush]

I don't they rely on it so much as use it as a tool. Their fleet is large enough as it is.

[Granitehewer]

tis true but in ''what you leave behind 2'' the female founder was concerned about the ramifications of losing the war, including those concerning aggressor species, such as the klingons and romulans, odo reassured her that the federation would prevent them launching military action against the dominion, and we don't know what threats that the dominion had in its home quadrant that may kept in line through dominion subterfuge whether it be covertly sponsoring insurrections, not allowing anyone to know the limits of its capabilities etc.
I don't think that the dominion was as big as power as its enemies were led to believe

[Sionnach Glic]

They don't rely on it so much, because they have the numbers and industry to back it up. But I think Granite's on to something there.
The Dominion, on first impression, was seen as a vastly powerful and undefeatable enemy. As the war went on, however, the Allied ships gained numerous victories over the Dominion ships, which later seemed to be inferior.

[Deepcrush]

They did lose over two thousand ships in the worm hole. Plus they were fighting a running war against the UFP/KE/RSE for two years. The losses must have been horrid for them. Even if they were building at twice the rate of the UFP. I doubt they would be able to out produce the combined might of the allies.

The Dominion also had weapons that could bypass shields. Shortly later the UFP got a hold on a Dominion ship and were able to adapt. Seeing how much damage the Oddessy took even without sheild protection. Dominion weapons my not be as powerful as that of the allies.